Gazelle, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS66 KMFR 150313
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
813 PM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Marine Discussion.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Monday, April 14th...Gusty northerly winds
under a thermal trough continue tonight, sustaining steep seas in
area waters.

The thermal trough strengthens and northerly winds increase late
tonight int Tuesday morning, with the strongest winds south of Cape
Blanco. Very steep and hazardous seas will develop south of Cape
Blanco on Tuesday morning, then spread to waters north of Cape
Blanco by Tuesday evening. Very steep and hazardous seas are
possible across all waters through the day Wednesday. Occasional
wind gusts gusts of 38-42 kt are possible south of Port Orford and
within 30 nm of shore in this Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

Steep to very steep seas look to remain in area waters through the
rest of the week and into the weekend.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 PM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025/

UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...15/00Z TAFs...Along the coast, areas of IFR/LIFR
are expected to develop late tonight and Tuesday morning, mainly
north of Cape Blanco. Then, conditions clear to VFR early Tuesday
afternoon. Gusty north winds are expected in the afternoon and
evening along the coast as well. For inland areas, VFR is expected
through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 219 PM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear skies over the entire
forecast area, and will remain clear through Tuesday morning.
Afternoon temperatures will be warmer compared to yesterday.

Surface analysis shows the thermal trough over the inland interior
westside valleys. This will result in the warmest afternoon
temperatures of the forecast period, with readings in the lower to
mid 80s. This is something we typically see in late May and early
June. So it will feel summer like.

Tuesday, the thermal trough will shift east resulting in slight
cooling (2-3 degrees on average) west of the Cascades. At the same
time we`ll be sandwiched in between a weak approaching upper trough
from the west and a cut off upper low off the California coast. Mid
level moisture will move up from the south ahead of the upper low
and could sneak into portions of our northern California counties
(Siskiyou and Modoc) CC/CC/Cmid to late Tuesday afternoon and
evening along with marginal instability. An isolated thunderstorm
or two is not out of the question in portions of southern Siskiyou
county and from about Mount Shasta east. Any storms that develop
will tend to move east to northeast, therefore areas east of Mount
Shasta could also see an isolated storm or two.

Any storms from Tuesday afternoon will end early Tuesday evening
with dry weather expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, this time we`ll be in between the cutoff upper low from
the south and an approaching and stronger upper trough from the
north. There`s good agreement the upper trough from the north will
have more influence in terms of keep the threat for thunderstorms
south of the forecast area. For now have kept in a slight chance of
storms in a few locations in southern Siskiyou and Modoc County.
However, would not be surprised if we get nothing more than some
cumulus buildups.

The aforementioned upper trough will drop south into our area
Wednesday night into Thursday. The trajectory of the upper trough is
one that does not typically result in precipitation, but will bring
a cooler and drier air mass with moderate to occasionally strong
winds east of the Cascades Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Breezy winds are also likely for the westside valleys Thursday
afternoon into early Thursday evening.

The operations models and individual ensembles are showing a dry
solution which makes sense given the trajectory of the upper low
(which is basically an inside slider).

Friday and Saturday will be dry with afternoon temperatures warming
up some, and will be above seasonal norms as the upper trough from
Thursday digs south and becomes cut off from the main flow bringing
a dry east to northeast flow over the area. Saturday, a weak upper
trough will move into the area, but the main effect from this will be
cooler afternoon temperatures, and more cloud cover.

General troughiness will set up Sunday and could bring isolated
showers mainly north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades,
with further cooling. even then temperatures are still expected to
be near seasonal norms. -Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$