Gazelle, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

123
FXUS66 KMFR 141626
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
926 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...Another morning of almost perfectly clear skies is
in store southern Oregon and far northern California. Satellite
imagery does however show an area of fog and low clouds rounding
Cape Mendocino, and surging north towards the south coast.
Brookings, which reached 96 degrees F yesterday at the airport,
dropped to 64 degrees F in less than one hour once the Chetco
effect shut off and marine influence returned. Now, with the
coastal wind reversal approaching from the south, fog and low
clouds are expected to reach Brookings around or shortly after
sunrise, and get as far north as Gold Beach by late morning. These
low clouds will shift offshore in the afternoon, but are likely to
return tonight.

Heat will be the primary concern for the next few days. The
thermal trough that has sat along the California and southern
Oregon coast will push inland today, as a weakness in the strong
upper level ridge settles southward into northern California.
This is the mechanism that will result in that aforementioned
surge of southerly wind up the coast that is acting as nature`s
air conditioning for the Brookings area today. Temps still could
be in the 70s/80s early on, but we do expect onshore flow to
provide cooling. The strongest offshore flow will shift to the
north today and this will allow coastal areas near Coos Bay/North
Bend to get much warmer than usual. We are expecting highs largely
in the 80s, but possibly even around 90F if the afternoon
northerlies stay more NNE. Areas inland just a few miles will have
highs well into the 90s.

If the air conditioning has been turned on near Brookings, then the
inland push of the thermal trough will turn the thermostat up to
high heat for inland areas. All inland areas west of the Cascades,
as well as the Mount Shasta City area will see high temps of
95-105F through Tuesday. Even a few locations in the lower
Klamath river valley in western Siskiyou County will get close to
110F. Heat Advisories have been issued for all these areas
starting today, including the north coast, and will spread into
the Klamath Basin and also the rest of norCal east of Mt. Shasta
City on Monday, where highs of low to mid 90s are expected with
moderate heat risk. Those who are sensitive to heat or lack
cooling/hydration resources could be affected by heat- related
illnesses.

Recent trends in the guidance suggest that there will be some
cooling from the NW Tuesday as the thermal trough shifts farther
inland. As such, the advisories for Coos and Douglas counties end
a bit sooner than the rest.

The ridge is expected to flatten a bit at midweek as a strong
upper jet becomes directed across southern British Columbia into
northern ID/MT. As such, the reduction in heat has been muted a
bit over the latest few model cycles. Temperatures are now
expected to cool only slightly Wed/Thu, as in around 5 to 10
degrees, then lower towards more seasonable, but still above
normal temperatures Fri into next weekend as an upper level
trough digs in from the northwest. As mentioned over the past few
days, we tend to see an increased risk for thunderstorms on the
back side of heat waves. Models are still keeping the area mostly
dry at the end of this one, but models are showing increasing
signs of instability in some runs as early as Wednesday afternoon,
but moreso Thursday and especially Friday afternoon, mainly over
Modoc and Siskiyou counties as the trough moves into the area.
Moisture values in the model runs are increasing, now with PWATs
approaching 1 inch, and the trough itself is likely to act as a
sufficient trigger. So while chances are very low/low (~10-15%)
for Wed, they are increasing for Thursday, and are now solidly in
the forecast for Friday over portions of northern California and
the East Side. The exact timing and location of thunderstorm risk
are difficult to pin down due to model differences at this time
range, but confidence is increasing for thunderstorms somewhere in
our area Thursday, and especially Friday, afternoons. -Spilde/BPN


&&

.AVIATION...14/18Z TAFs...North to northwest winds will not be as
strong this afternoon with breezy northerly winds limited to the
coast north of Cape Blanco. Coastal IFR/LIFR presently south of
Brookings will surge northward late today and tonight. LIFR is
expected to reach Brookings by early this evening and then spread
north to Cape Blanco tonight. Otherwise, clear skies/VFR conditions
will persist across the area.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Sunday, June 14, 2026...The thermal
trough will push inland Sunday, allowing winds to weaken
temporarily. Although winds diminish, residual fresh swell and wind
seas will keep waves steep for all areas, potentially very steep
south of Gold Beach, though latest guidance shows seas easing from
around 6-7 feet down to 4-5 feet during the afternoon at Buoy 46027
(Pt. St. George). Also, a wind reversal is likely south of Gold
Beach and within 20 nm of shore, where a southerly wind surge could
produce reduced visibilities in fog.

The thermal trough quickly reforms Monday and Tuesday, bringing the
return of strong north winds and steep to very steep wind driven
seas through much of next week. -Spilde/BPN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 AM PDT Sunday, June 14, 2026...
Rapid warming and drying continue as an early season heat wave lasts
through midweek. Temperatures will peak Sunday to Tuesday with
daytime highs about 20-25 degrees above normal. This will likely
result in some triple digit readings for the valleys west of the
Cascades, but especially western Siskiyou County, where it could get
to around 110F. Minimum relative humidities will also trend lower
(bottoming out in the 10-20% range for most areas) -- though RHs
could even drop into single digits at times, especially over the
East Side deserts and some of the West Side valleys. Meanwhile,
broad north through east flow will produce moderate to poor RH
recoveries over upper slopes/ridges each night, especially over the
Klamath mountains, Siskiyous, and Cascades. Poor ridge RH recoveries
are likely again Sunday night. Expect another round of enhanced
northerlies to channel through the Goose Basin near Lakeview this
morning.

Elsewhere, expect fairly typical diurnal afternoon N-E winds
that could become breezy at times during the afternoons/evenings
through Tuesday. This will make for elevated fire weather concerns
into early next week and localized conditions could get
extremely close to Red Flag criteria, especially considering the low
teens and potential single digit minimum humidities during the peak
of the heat wave, along with the afternoon breezes. Undoubtedly,
this period of hot, dry, breezy weather will continue to move the
needle toward higher fire danger as we head into next week.

We continue to see a signal in the extended forecast as the heat
begins to ease mid next week that moisture/instability will
increase. As such, lightning potential will increase. Right now,
models are showing focus areas mainly to our south through
Thursday. However, there is a low possibility (10-15% chance)
that something pops up in some of our southern and eastern
mountains (Mt Shasta region/Warners) Thursday afternoon/evening.
But, by Friday afternoon/evening, the signal remains stronger for a
slight chance of thunderstorms in those same general areas (SE
sections of the forecast area). We`ll continue to monitor and adjust
the forecast as necessary. -Spilde/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ021-023>026-029.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$